Bandwagon Effect

The bandwagon effect extends far beyond sports to all sorts of decisions we make in our lives. The primary concern is that this bias can override the individual critical thinking that is often necessary for making good decisions. Unfortunately, the choices that benefit other people do not always benefit us.

Consider going to university: while this is a good option for many after graduating high school, it is not the right choice for everyone. Some people might benefit more from going to trade school or participating in apprenticeship programs. It is important that we evaluate our behaviors based on their merit and what they could mean for us and then make our decisions accordingly. The bandwagon effect can prevent this by convincing us that the right decision is the popular one, not the personal one.

A lack of individual critical thinking can have particularly damaging implications when its effects are widespread. The bandwagon effect often fuels social and political movements, which don’t always serve the public good or benefit those who join them. 

For instance, people who join the anti-vaccination movement are less likely to have their children regularly immunized. Widespread avoidance of vaccinations can result in harmful disease outbreaks such as measles.¹ History has also shown that dangerous populist movements begin with a snowballing uptake of political messages aimed at resonating with “ordinary people.” A lack of critical thinking often perpetuates these damaging movements, thanks to the bandwagon effect.

Cognitive biases such as the bandwagon effect can also negatively influence several professions. In finance, for example, investors may notice a large uptake in capital as a sign to follow suit. A buying frenzy can ensue, where prices are driven up by widespread speculation that they will continue rising. This is known as a “price bubble,” which can crash with spectacular consequences for investors and average people alike. The 2008 housing crisis exemplifies such a phenomenon.¹⁰

Social media platforms are amplifying the bandwagon effect like never before. Now online trends can go viral and spread to millions of people all around the world within a matter of seconds. Once we see countless other users advocating for a new idea or behavior, it is hard to resist doing the same. 

Sometimes, these trends can actually make a big difference. For instance, the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge in the summer of 2014 is now considered the largest social media movement in medical history. Since participants had to tag three of their friends to pour freezing water over their heads, the bandwagon effect guaranteed that this trend rapidly spread. The positive impact was astronomical, raising over $115 million for ASL in just six weeks and creating global awareness about the disease.¹¹

However, there are just as many trends (if not more) encouraging social media users to engage in benign or even dangerous behaviors. Think back to January 2019 when the Tide pod challenge took the internet by storm, encouraging people to consume laundry detergent packets. In the first half of the month alone, there were 39 cases in the United States of teenagers intentionally ingesting detergent—the same amount as in the entirety of 2016.¹² So although online trends can help save lives, they can also put lives at risk. 

As AI skyrockets in popularity, companies are eagerly incorporating machine learning functionalities into their products as a marketing gimmick. They know that including the buzzword in their branding is often enough to encourage consumers to buy their product, thanks to the bandwagon effect. 

The problem with rapid adoption is it might convince us that AI is always an innovative technology—everyone else is using it, so it must be helpful! Little do we realize is that AI integration doesn’t always provide significant advantages; it can even complicate the processes it claims to simplify. For example, it may be easier to set your own alarm rather than rely on an algorithm that miscalculates your sleep patterns. Or it might be simpler to turn on the light yourself rather than yelling at your AI assistant to do it ten times.

With the bandwagon effect in mind, it is important to be critical about which aspects of our lives we want to incorporate machine learning into. Remember: just because it helps a large group of people doesn’t guarantee it will help you.

The bandwagon effect describes that when an idea or belief increases in popularity, we are more likely to adopt it. There are a few reasons behind this, the first of which is efficiency:

Our brain uses shortcuts

We rely on mental shortcuts called “heuristics.” The bandwagon effect serves as a heuristic by allowing us to make decisions quickly. Fully thinking through a behavior or idea and deciding whether it is worth endorsing or not takes time and energy. Many of us see widespread adoption as a cue to adopt a similar stance. That is to say we skip the long process of individual evaluation by relying on others, measuring validity with widespread popularity. If many people are in favor of something, we decide it’s safe to adopt those same beliefs.²

We want to fit in

Most of us dislike feeling excluded from communities and social events To avoid being the odd one out, many of us go along with the behaviors or ideas of a group to feel like we belong. After all, conformity ensures some degree of inclusion and social acceptance. Sometimes we take our conformity a step even further by adopting norms or attitudes to gain approval and bolster our position within a group.³

We want to be on the winning side

More often than not, the beliefs that the majority uphold feel right and are subsequently adopted. Our endorsement may be subconscious; we may not intentionally accept the majority opinion thinking we want to be on the “winning side.” We have likely evolved to instinctively support popular beliefs because standing against them can be disadvantageous at best and dangerous at worst.⁴

We should try and resist putting too much faith in popular opinion as a tool for judging the worth of ideas and behaviors. What is good for the majority may not be good for you. Further still, it might not be morally or situationally suitable. People often make harmful decisions when part of a crowd caught in what’s known as a “mob mentality.” When swept away in this group mindset, we end up acting out of character and doing things we may regret afterward.

Judging ideas and behaviors ourselves according to their merit rather than popularity can also develop our critical thinking skills. This process helps us to form unique stances that develop our individual sense of identity. We shouldn’t all be the same. There are many benefits to standing out, such as recognition and pride in our own convictions. Deciding to “hop on the bandwagon” can deter us from gaining these benefits.

While it is impossible to completely escape the bandwagon effect, we can decrease our reliance on social cues as a driving factor when making influential decisions. We can achieve this first by slowing down our decision-making process. Allowing some time to pass between when we notice social signals and making our final decision can allow for critical thinking and prevent us from quickly adopting a popular idea. Second, try to make choices in an environment where you don't feel pressured by others. Lastly, consider alternative options that go against the majority view. These may prove to be more beneficial or at least mitigate the appeal of automatically accepting the prevailing view.⁵

While the phenomenon of popularity increasing the appeal of ideas is by no means a new discovery, using the term “bandwagon” to denote the effect began in 1848. During Zachary Taylor's successful United States presidential campaign, a popular performance clown invited Taylor to join his circus bandwagon. Taylor received significant recognition and people started claiming that his political opponents might also want to “jump on the bandwagon.”⁶ 

Meanwhile, the academic study of the bandwagon effect gained traction in the 1980s as scholars studied the effect of public opinion polls on voters. People feared that published polls encouraged voters to act according to popular opinion rather than their knowledge of the issues at hand.⁷

The bandwagon effect is thought to influence political elections as voters select parties or candidates they perceive as being popular and likely to win the election. To dig deeper into this relationship, a team of researchers in Germany led by Magdalena Obermaier conducted an experiment with 765 participants in 2017.

The researchers told participants that they were part of a study analyzing news coverage before a local election. They read several news articles about the fictitious mayoral election of a German town, followed by information about numerous candidates’ history. Next, participants were divided into groups that were given different polls: one revealed a candidate losing by a wide margin, another revealed a candidate winning by a large margin, and the last group was not shown any polls.

The results supported the influence of the bandwagon effect, as polling information unveiling perceived popularity often determined whether participants expected a candidate to win or not. When no poll was available, participants formed their opinion using candidates’ histories instead.⁸

The bandwagon effect can determine the decisions made by doctors. Many medical procedures widely practiced for significant periods throughout history have subsequently been disproven. We can attribute doctors’ widespread use and support of these practices to their popularity at the time.

Professor Emeritus of Surgery Layton F. Rikkers calls these prevailing practices “medical bandwagons.” He defines this as “the overwhelming acceptance of unproved but popular [medical] ideas.”⁹

Rikkers offers the example of tonsillectomy (the removal of one’s tonsils) as a recent example of medical bandwagons. He notes that although this procedure can be beneficial in some specific cases, there was never enough scientific support published to support its universal adoption. Doctors were drawn to tonsillectomies not based on their effectiveness, but simply because it was widely practiced.

What it is

The bandwagon effect refers to our habit of adopting certain behaviors or beliefs because many other people do the same.

Why it happens

There are three reasons explaining why, as an idea or belief increases in popularity, we are more likely to adopt it. The first reason is that the bandwagon effect serves as a heuristic by allowing us to make decisions quickly. Second, to avoid standing out and being excluded, many of us support the behaviors or ideas of the groups we find ourselves in. Third, we accept the majority opinion because we want to be on the “winning side.”

Example 1 - Snowballing political campaigns

The bandwagon effect influences political elections as voters select parties or candidates that they perceive as likely to win the election. A 2017 study looked into this relationship by studying the effects of polling information on voter perceptions surrounding a fictitious mayoral election. The results supported the influence of the bandwagon effect, as polling information determined whether or not participants expected a candidate to win.

Example 2 - Historical influence on medicine

The bandwagon effect can influence decisions made by doctors. Medical professionals’ widespread use and support of disproven practices stems from their popularity. For example, although tonsillectomies are beneficial in some specific cases, there lacks of scientific support for their universal application. Doctors were drawn to this procedure not based on its effectiveness but because it was widely used.

How to avoid it

We can counteract our tendency to automatically use social cues as a driving factor when making influential decisions. We can achieve this by first slowing down our decision-making process. Second, try to make decisions in an environment where you don't feel pressured by other people. Lastly, consider alternative options that go against the majority view.

Overwhelmed by Choice (1/2): Consumers and Green Energy 

Although the bandwagon effect can lead us toward disastrous choices, it can also promote sustainable behaviors. Policymakers can leverage this effect on a community level, encouraging people to adopt green switching simply because their neighbors are doing it. Read this article to learn more about how the bandwagon effect and other biases can leverage consumers toward saving the environment.  

Join the Club: The Science Behind the Rise of Clubhouse 

Clubhouse, a new audio-only social media app, has amassed over 10 million users in just a few months. Here’s the catch: you must receive an invitation from an existing user to join. In this article, Sanketh Andhavarapu explores how the bandwagon effect, along with other cognitive effects, is causing Clubhouse to explode in popularity.